gbt-regression(Python)
Import Notebook

Regression with gradient-boosted trees and MLlib pipelines

This notebook uses a bike-sharing dataset to illustrate MLlib pipelines and the gradient-boosted trees machine learning algorithm. The challenge is to predict the number of bicycle rentals per hour based on the features available in the dataset such as day of the week, weather, season, and so on. Demand prediction is a common problem across businesses; good predictions allow a business or service to optimize inventory and to match supply and demand to make customers happy and maximize profitability.

Load the dataset

The dataset is from the UCI Machine Learning Repository and is provided with Databricks Runtime. The dataset includes information about bicycle rentals from the Capital bikeshare system in 2011 and 2012.

Load the data using the CSV datasource for Spark, which creates a Spark DataFrame. 

df = spark.read.csv("/databricks-datasets/bikeSharing/data-001/hour.csv", header="true", inferSchema="true")
# The following command caches the DataFrame in memory. This improves performance since subsequent calls to the DataFrame can read from memory instead of re-reading the data from disk.
df.cache()
Out[1]: DataFrame[instant: int, dteday: string, season: int, yr: int, mnth: int, hr: int, holiday: int, weekday: int, workingday: int, weathersit: int, temp: double, atemp: double, hum: double, windspeed: double, casual: int, registered: int, cnt: int]

Data description

The following columns are included in the dataset:

Index column:

  • instant: record index

Feature columns:

  • dteday: date
  • season: season (1:spring, 2:summer, 3:fall, 4:winter)
  • yr: year (0:2011, 1:2012)
  • mnth: month (1 to 12)
  • hr: hour (0 to 23)
  • holiday: 1 if holiday, 0 otherwise
  • weekday: day of the week (0 to 6)
  • workingday: 0 if weekend or holiday, 1 otherwise
  • weathersit: (1:clear, 2:mist or clouds, 3:light rain or snow, 4:heavy rain or snow)
  • temp: normalized temperature in Celsius
  • atemp: normalized feeling temperature in Celsius
  • hum: normalized humidity
  • windspeed: normalized wind speed

Label columns:

  • casual: count of casual users
  • registered: count of registered users
  • cnt: count of total rental bikes including both casual and registered

Call display() on a DataFrame to see a sample of the data. The first row shows that 16 people rented bikes between midnight and 1am on January 1, 2011. 

display(df)
 
instant
dteday
season
yr
mnth
hr
holiday
weekday
workingday
weathersit
temp
atemp
hum
windspeed
casual
registered
cnt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
2011-01-01
1
0
1
0
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.81
0
3
13
16
2
2011-01-01
1
0
1
1
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
8
32
40
3
2011-01-01
1
0
1
2
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
5
27
32
4
2011-01-01
1
0
1
3
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
3
10
13
5
2011-01-01
1
0
1
4
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
0
1
1
6
2011-01-01
1
0
1
5
0
6
0
2
0.24
0.2576
0.75
0.0896
0
1
1
7
2011-01-01
1
0
1
6
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
2
0
2
8
2011-01-01
1
0
1
7
0
6
0
1
0.2
0.2576
0.86
0
1
2
3
9
2011-01-01
1
0
1
8
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
1
7
8
10
2011-01-01
1
0
1
9
0
6
0
1
0.32
0.3485
0.76
0
8
6
14
11
2011-01-01
1
0
1
10
0
6
0
1
0.38
0.3939
0.76
0.2537
12
24
36
12
2011-01-01
1
0
1
11
0
6
0
1
0.36
0.3333
0.81
0.2836
26
30
56
13
2011-01-01
1
0
1
12
0
6
0
1
0.42
0.4242
0.77
0.2836
29
55
84
14
2011-01-01
1
0
1
13
0
6
0
2
0.46
0.4545
0.72
0.2985
47
47
94
15
2011-01-01
1
0
1
14
0
6
0
2
0.46
0.4545
0.72
0.2836
35
71
106
16
2011-01-01
1
0
1
15
0
6
0
2
0.44
0.4394
0.77
0.2985
40
70
110
17
2011-01-01
1
0
1
16
0
6
0
2
0.42
0.4242
0.82
0.2985
41
52
93
18
2011-01-01
1
0
1
17
0
6
0
2
0.44
0.4394
0.82
0.2836
15
52
67

Showing the first 1000 rows.

print("The dataset has %d rows." % df.count())
The dataset has 17379 rows.

Preprocess data

This dataset is well prepared for machine learning algorithms. The numeric input columns (temp, atemp, hum, and windspeed) are normalized, categorial values (season, yr, mnth, hr, holiday, weekday, workingday, weathersit) are converted to indices, and all of the columns except for the date (dteday) are numeric.

The goal is to predict the count of bike rentals (the cnt column). Reviewing the dataset, you can see that some columns contain duplicate information. For example, the cnt column equals the sum of the casual and registered columns. You should remove the casual and registered columns from the dataset. The index column instant is also not useful as a predictor.

You can also delete the column dteday, as this information is already included in the other date-related columns yr, mnth, and weekday. 

df = df.drop("instant").drop("dteday").drop("casual").drop("registered")
display(df)
 
season
yr
mnth
hr
holiday
weekday
workingday
weathersit
temp
atemp
hum
windspeed
cnt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1
0
1
0
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.81
0
16
1
0
1
1
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
40
1
0
1
2
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
32
1
0
1
3
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
13
1
0
1
4
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
1
1
0
1
5
0
6
0
2
0.24
0.2576
0.75
0.0896
1
1
0
1
6
0
6
0
1
0.22
0.2727
0.8
0
2
1
0
1
7
0
6
0
1
0.2
0.2576
0.86
0
3
1
0
1
8
0
6
0
1
0.24
0.2879
0.75
0
8
1
0
1
9
0
6
0
1
0.32
0.3485
0.76
0
14
1
0
1
10
0
6
0
1
0.38
0.3939
0.76
0.2537
36
1
0
1
11
0
6
0
1
0.36
0.3333
0.81
0.2836
56
1
0
1
12
0
6
0
1
0.42
0.4242
0.77
0.2836
84
1
0
1
13
0
6
0
2
0.46
0.4545
0.72
0.2985
94
1
0
1
14
0
6
0
2
0.46
0.4545
0.72
0.2836
106
1
0
1
15
0
6
0
2
0.44
0.4394
0.77
0.2985
110
1
0
1
16
0
6
0
2
0.42
0.4242
0.82
0.2985
93
1
0
1
17
0
6
0
2
0.44
0.4394
0.82
0.2836
67

Showing the first 1000 rows.

Print the dataset schema to see the type of each column.

df.printSchema()
root |-- season: integer (nullable = true) |-- yr: integer (nullable = true) |-- mnth: integer (nullable = true) |-- hr: integer (nullable = true) |-- holiday: integer (nullable = true) |-- weekday: integer (nullable = true) |-- workingday: integer (nullable = true) |-- weathersit: integer (nullable = true) |-- temp: double (nullable = true) |-- atemp: double (nullable = true) |-- hum: double (nullable = true) |-- windspeed: double (nullable = true) |-- cnt: integer (nullable = true)

Split data into training and test sets

Randomly split data into training and test sets. By doing this, you can train and tune the model using only the training subset, and then evaluate the model's performance on the test set to get a sense of how the model will perform on new data. 

# Split the dataset randomly into 70% for training and 30% for testing. Passing a seed for deterministic behavior
train, test = df.randomSplit([0.7, 0.3], seed = 0)
print("There are %d training examples and %d test examples." % (train.count(), test.count()))
There are 12081 training examples and 5298 test examples.

Visualize the data

You can plot the data to explore it visually. The following plot shows the number of bicycle rentals during each hour of the day. As you might expect, rentals are low during the night, and peak at commute hours.

To create plots, call display() on a DataFrame in Databricks and click the plot icon below the table.

To create the plot shown, run the command in the following cell. The results appear in a table. From the drop-down menu below the table, select "Line". Click Plot Options.... In the dialog, drag hr to the Keys field, and drag cnt to the Values field. Also in the Keys field, click the "x" next to <id> to remove it. In the Aggregation drop down, select "AVG". 

display(train.select("hr", "cnt"))

Aggregated (by avg) in the backend.

02468101214161820220100200300400
hrcnt